Under what conditions does dollar primacy unravel?
A scenario framework. Fiscal, energy, payments, alliance — and what would need to break in concert.
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Learn more →"Under what specific conditions could the dollar's primacy actually unravel? The Iran war is not the perfect storm — but it shows us the shape of one."
With the U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran winding down, Washington has bought itself meaningful strategic slack. The question is no longer whether the dollar can be challenged, but which combination of shocks — fiscal, energy, payments, alliance — would push it over.
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Attorney, columnist for Wealth Magazine and China Times; convener of the firm's geo-economic practice.
Strategy is not a forecast. It is a position you can defend across more than one future.

Macroeconomist; UCLA Anderson Forecast veteran; focus on monetary policy and capital flows.
The dollar's strength is a political asset before it is a financial one. Treat it that way.

Former Deputy Minister, Mainland Affairs Council, Republic of China; defense scholar; cross-Strait security.
Deterrence in the Strait is built before the crisis. After the crisis, you spend down what you built.
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