Trump's last-hour announcement, the Pakistani back-channel, and ten conditions on the table. Read from Beijing, the talks look like a different transaction.
Ten predictions, in order of confidence. The first three concern the procedural shape of the talks: who hosts, who mediates, and what gets sequenced first. The next four concern substance: enrichment ceilings, sanctions relief tranches, regional proxies, and the missile program. The last three concern the read from Beijing — which is not the same read as from Washington or Tel Aviv.
Beijing's interest is not the deal itself but the precedent. A successful U.S.–Iran framework with Pakistani back-channel involvement signals to Beijing that Washington can still assemble coalitions in the region without overcommitting force. That conclusion is the one that matters for cross-Strait planning.
Originally published in Wealth Magazine · 財訊. Reproduced here with the author's permission. For inquiries, contact SouthRock Group.