The chokepoint everyone watches is fab capacity. The chokepoint forming is mask-making and rare-earth refining. The map matters.
Fab capacity is the chokepoint of the last decade. The chokepoints of the next decade are quietly forming one layer up and one layer down: photomask manufacturing on the upstream side, and rare-earth refining on the materials side. Both are more geographically concentrated than fab capacity, and both are politically softer targets.
The map matters because the policy tools that work on fabs — export controls, equipment restrictions, entity lists — do not map cleanly onto mask shops or refineries. Different choke points require different instruments, and the U.S. policy stack is not yet built for the next round.
Originally published in SouthRock Briefing. Reproduced here with the author's permission. For inquiries, contact SouthRock Group.