A short framework for principals who want to know when to stop reading the headlines and start moving capital.
Four signals matter: PLA logistics posture (not exercise tempo), reservist call-up patterns on the mainland, civil-aviation NOTAM patterns over the Strait, and the political calendar in Beijing. When three of the four move together, the situation has changed.
Three signals do not matter, despite the headlines they generate: aircraft incursion counts, naval transit counts, and ministry-level rhetoric. They are noise, not signal, and trading on them produces consistent losses.
The framework is for principals who need to know when to stop reading the news and start moving capital. The point is not to predict war; it is to know which week to be in cash.
Originally published in China Times · 中國時報. Reproduced here with the author's permission. For inquiries, contact SouthRock Group.